Hindistan, Endonezya, Singapur, Malezya, Çin

Moody's'e göre bunların hepsinin bankacılık sistemleri sallanıyormuş. Hindistan ve Çin'de olanları yakından takip ettiğimden onları biliyordum da Endonezya, Singapur ve Malezya'nın da benzer durumda olduklarını bilmiyordum. Ama şaşırmadım tabii. Hemen her ülkede durum böyle. Türkiye'de de durum pek iyi değil bildiğiniz gibi.

https://www.financialexpress.com/market/banking-stocks-fall-indian-banks-most-prone-to-corporate-debt-defaults-says-moodys/1722602/

Bizim makalenin amacı bu soruna çözüm önermek. Özeti aşağıda.

Proposal for a Non-financial Private Sector Deleveraging Agency Financed by Zero-Coupon Perpetual Bonds

 

ABSTRACT

Debt overhang of the non-financial private sector has been one of the main reasons for the ongoing global stagnation that started in 2007, and recent data released by the BIS, IMF, IIF, and others indicate that debt overhang of the non-financial private sector is worse in 2019 than it was in 2007. Given this, and inspired by the German Currency Reform of 1948 and equalization claims,  we focus on the non-financial private sector comprising households and non-financial firms, and propose a deleveraging mechanism capable of avoiding not only a potential Fisherian debt deflation but also of Fisher's "needless and cruel bankruptcy, unemployment, and starvation." Since our deleveraging mechanism is a form of partial Jubilee financed by government-issued zero-coupon perpetual bonds, neither it is a substitution of public for private debt, nor it is helicopter money because it does not cause any immediate change in the broad money supply. Furthermore, because of our focus not only on the households but also on the non-financial corporate sector, our proposed deleveraging mechanism is more comprehensive than other proposed mechanisms that operate at the household level. We then discuss potential moral hazard problems as well as resentments such deleveraging mechanisms may create, and since we are concerned with domestic bank loans only, we make suggestions regarding how our mechanism may be extended to non-bank loans and bonds, and coordinated globally.