Bizim makaleden bir alıntı - İngilizce
According to the IIF, after reaching an all
time peak of about $248 trillion in the first quarter of 2018, despite some small contraction in the rest of
2018, "[s]purred by falling interest rates, global debt rose by a hefty $3
trillion in Q1 2019. At over $246 trillion, global debt is now just a $2
trillion shy of all-time high of Q1 2018 (IIF 2019)". And of this about $246
trillion, while about $60 trillion is financial and about $67 trillion is
government debt, about $73 trillion is non-financial corporate and $43 trillion
is household debt so that at a total of about $120 trillion, the non-financial
private sector dwarfs the financial and public sectors in its
over-indebtedness.
Furthermore, these numbers are based mainly on
bank loans and debt securities, and the GDD all instruments data available for
only 45 of the 190 countries imply that these numbers grossly underestimate the
actual debt stock of the non-financial private sector. Given that the world GDP
was about $85 trillion in 2018, the global non-financial private sector debt to
GDP ratio is way above %100, possibly surpassing %150. In light of history, a
global non-financial private sector debt deleveraging is therefore inevitable
at this level of debt overhang, if it did not start already. And in light of
the recent warnings issued by the BIS (2019), IMF (2019), IIF (2019) and others,
it appears that the coming round may be worse than the previous round that
started in 2007.
In 2016, in an interview with Ambrose
Evans-Pritchard of the British paper the Daily Telegraph, the former chief
economist of the BIS William R. White issued warnings, and below are a few
excerpts from his interview (Evans-Pritchard 2016) :
"The
situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight
downturns is essentially all used up ... Debts have continued to build up over
the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the
world that they have become a potent cause for mischief ... It will become
obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced
or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they
own assets that are worth something ... The only question is whether we are
able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion,
or whether it will be disorderly."
It is with these in mind that we propose our
non-financial private sector deleveraging mechanism. Our proposed mechanism is
not a "bailout" of the financial system −although this also happens
as a by-product− but a one-off "bailout" of the non-financial private
sector that will deleverage no matter what and, in the absence other
mechanisms, the two "bailouts"
Mbaye, Moreno-Badia and Chae (2018) discussed will come. The objective of our
proposed mechanism is to achieve this "bailout" at the lowest
possible cost to the society in the form of a partial jubilee and in this, we are
willing to use the State's money-creating capacity. As the UN Secretary-General
António Guterres said on October 19, 2019, speaking during the World Bank Group
and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington DC., and we agree, "it is time to
break the cycle of excessive debt build-up followed by painful debt crises."
