Monday, January 06, 2020

Şebmen Kalemli-Özcan asks: Should We Worry About Corporate Leverage?

And I answer: It is the private debt, stupid!

Makalesi burada. - İngilizce

Şöyle bitiriyor:

"However, dealing with excessive credit growth and foreign currency denominated debt may not be enough. A long-term objective that would act on the transmission channel structurally entails reducing the inherent country risk. As shown Alfaro, Kalemli-Ozcan, Volosovych (2008) countries’ institutional quality is the most important causal factor for capital flows in the long-term. High quality institutions will also reduce the risk-sensitivity of capital flows in the shortrun. Improvements in the quality and transparency of institutions will reduce idiosyncratic country risk and reduce the sensitivity of capital flows to foreign investors’ risk perceptions. Policies aimed at strengthening the protection of property rights, reducing corruption, and increasing government stability, bureaucratic quality, and law and order should be a priority for policymakers seeking not only to increase capital inflows but also to reduce the sensitivity of capital flows to risk. These policies will also help countries to get the most out of capital flows in terms of sustainable growth, tilting capital flows towards longer maturity debt, and foreign direct investments. Strong institutions will also provide the needed credibility for implementing desirable macroprudential policies, to dampen the severe effects of leverage cycles."

Ben de vallahi bravo diyorum.

Benden selam olsun Bolu Beyine.

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