Bu başlıklı İngizce makalemi yazmaya başladım. Şöyle başladı.
This
Time is Really Different
Can Capitalism
Survive?
T. Sabri Öncü
This
Time is Really Different
Can Capitalism
Survive?
T. Sabri Öncü
Congratulating Oldrich
Oldrich
Vasicek is an old friend. When I started my "quant" carrier in fixed
income (that is, bonds) in January 1994 in Walnut Creek, California, Oldrich
was there. A recently graduated
mathematics Ph.D. then, I received my first real-life finance education from
him.
Oldrich,
a statistician by trait is famous for developing the first theory of term
structure of default risk-free interests rates in 1977 (Vasicek 1977). But,
despite this, he had been unfortunate until recently because his theory allowed
for negative nominal interest rates. Most people considered this a flaw because
negative nominal interest rates were unimaginable then.
And
now, the entire term structures or −in non-academic parlance− yield curves of
Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and Denmark are below zero. These are nominal
interest rates. A few days ago, Finland's entire yield curve went below zero
also, but at the time of writing (Sunday, 18 August 2019), Finland's longest
maturity government interest rate appears to have gone above zero. I am almost sure
it will go below zero again. Belgium and Sweden appear to be next in line,
although we do not know which one will win the competition.
Hence,
I congratulate Oldrich.
Oldrich bu. İstatistikçidir aslında. Benden 20 yaş büyüktür. Yakışıklı bir arkadaştır. 1994'te çok daha yakışıklıydı. 52 yaşındaydı. Şimdi 77. Zaman çok hızlı geçiyor.
